Purpose – This paper analyzes the gold Murabahah contract, which tends to be very popular in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry. As the contract is very sensitive to the gold price movement and speculative motive, a comprehensive assessment is done to assess the behavior of the gold price movement, behavior of the investors and the limits of the gold Murabahah contract. It proposes recommendations to manage the gold Murabahah contract and to mitigate its potential risks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper examines the gold price, termination of contract and limitation of the amount of funds in the gold Murabahah transactions by using quantitative formulas, such as variance, expected prices and probability of occurrence. In addition, it includes a qualitative analysis of the historical pattern of daily gold prices in the past 12 years. As such, a combination of both approaches generates a comprehensive analysis and recommendations to policymakers, Islamic bankers and investors. Findings – It finds some interesting outcomes with regard to the behavior of gold prices, behavior of investors regarding the gold Murabahah contract and intention of investors to terminate gold Murabahah contracts prior to their maturity date. Such outcomes become the material for the policy recommendations of the paper. Particularly, it proposes the margin of the Murabahah gold contract, tenor of the contract, down payment and a review of the base gold Murabahah regulation to manage the gold Murabahah contract and to mitigate risks. Research limitations/implications – The paper does not consider macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and economic growth which may affect the movement of the world’s gold prices. It does not examine the gold Murabahah contract in other countries, as it is believed that the gold Murabahah contract is very popular only in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry. Originality/value – To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper examines the gold Murabahah contract in relation to the Indonesian Islamic banking industry.
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