Analyzing Land use Changes in Tourism Development Areas: A Case Study of Cultural World Heritage Sites on Java Island, Indonesia

Tourism activities and infrastructure development, as responses to expectations from tourists, are generally considered to negatively influence ecosystem services, specifically at tourism sites. Some studies even show that the construction of any infrastructure, such as accommodation facilities and new roads, endangers the authenticity and integrity of World Heritage sites (WHS). Therefore, it is crucial to have insight into the characteristics of land use in tourism areas and the changes that occur, and to ensure ecosystems can continue to provide services. The purpose of this paper is to analyze changes in land use in the areas around tourism sites. This study developed a future land use simulation (FLUS) model to simulate land use changes based on spatial-temporal data on areas around tourist destinations in general and especially around WHS. The FLUS model was applied to simulate the land use changes in tourism development areas in the middle part of Java Island, Indonesia. This study selected six locational factors and three topographic factors to define the transition map outlining the probability of occurrence for conditions and topography on each land use map grid. The model improved using simulation from 2015 to 2018, with an accuracy of 89.99% and kappa coefficient of 0.8234. The FLUS model was further employed to simulate the land use changes from 2018 to 2036. The results of the analysis of land use change in tourism locations indicate a significant change from croplands to built-up areas. This analysis was conducted to provide information for policymakers and investors so that they can make the right decisions when developing the infrastructure development plan. Notably for areas whose economic sector is being developed, but also in particular, have areas that must be preserved.