THE CHINESE WAY: ANALYZING THE INVISIBLE ROAD TOWARDS NORMALIZATION

Description

China’s successful mediation of Saudi-Iran diplomatic ties has been widely viewed as a sign of its growing role in the Middle East. As the United States slowly shifts its focus away from the region, many experts wonder whether China will eventually replace the US as the region’s leading power. However, China will only replace the United States when it becomes more involved in the political and security issues of the Middle East rather than focusing primarily on economic engagement.

 

For the past two decades, China’s involvement in the Middle East have coincided with rising energy demand and economic interests. To date, China has signed comprehensive strategic partnership agreements with five Middle East countries and strategic partnership agreements with eight Middle East countries, many of whom are Gulf oil-producing countries.

China’s diplomacy in the Middle East also has trodden cautiously and selectively by avoiding involvement in politics and military issues. China has not conducted military intervention in regional conflicts, such as in Iraq, Yemen, or Syria. To manage regional conflicts, China prefers to adopt a “quasi-mediation” role. By doing so, China has been able to balance its economic and energy interests without being consumed by complex political quarrels.

In Saudi Arabia, China has boosted investment, mostly in strategic infrastructure projects, through the Belt and Road Initiative. China-Saudi trade volumes have increased significantly, jumping from $4.1 billion in 2002 to $87.4 billion in 2021. Currently, China is Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, the largest importerof its oil, and one of its most important investors. Media reports suggest that China and Saudi reached agreement on $30 billion worth of Chinese investment in technology, green energy, and other sectors in the kingdom during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Riyadh last year.

From Riyadh’s perspective, with the introduction of Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016, the kingdom intended to diversify its economy, starting with foreign investment in non-oil sectors. This suggests that Saudi’s motivation to establish closer relations with China is mainly economic in nature.

China-Iran relations also revolve around economic and energy issues. While official data is lacking, China currently is believed to be Iran’s largest oil consumer. Even when Iran was under international sanctions, China consumed Iran’s oil by using third parties to rebrand Iranian exports. Relations between China and Iran, unlike those between China and Saudi Arabia, go beyond economic and energy issues. China was believed to have distributed various weapon systems to Tehran even while Iran has faced sanctions, although no public records have confirmed this accusation. China has been adept at navigating close ties with Iran, despite sanctions, while avoiding overt displays of support for Iran’s military. Finally, the two countries share anti-U.S. sentiment, which only serve to strengthen their relations.

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran suggests that the two countries value their relationship with China. It also shows that China is capable of maximizing the benefits of its ties with Saudi Arabia (economically) and with Iran (economically and politically). China’s mediation success adds another benefit to its diplomatic credibility. Nonetheless, China’s diplomatic moves, with respect to both China-Saudi and China-Iran relations, remain cautious and selective, in keeping with China’s tradition of avoiding security-related issues in the Middle East. 

The normalization between Saudi and Iran will surely impact other areas where the two countries are in conflict, such as in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Going forward, however, China may not necessarily be interested in getting itself involved in these other disputes unless it could bring economic benefits to Beijing.

Subject

Assessing China’s Emerging Role in 2023